This paper examines how localized inland waterway disruptions propagate through the U.S. grain trading network. We develop a partial-equilibrium model that characterizes river disruptions as segment-specific iceberg trade-cost shocks to trace how these shocks reallocate trade across routes and modes of domestic transportation. Empirically, we estimate shipment-specific trade elasticities with respect to barge rates by combining bilateral state-level trade flows across 10 non-consecutive years (2007–2024) with hydrological data. Using a route- and time-specific disruption index constructed from these river-level data as an instrument for barge freight rates, we show that river bottlenecks significantly inflate transportation costs and lead to substantial trade reallocation. Counterfactual simulations reveal that eliminating these disruptions would have increased aggregate grain trade by $54.7 billion (2.2%) over the study period, generating highly heterogeneous impacts across states and shipment types. Crucially, downstream bottlenecks generate far greater trade losses than comparable upstream shocks due to their higher network centrality, underscoring the critical need to spatially target investments based on their network-wide trade effects.

This paper develops a new framework to measure cost pass-through in a small open economy by estimating firm markup responses to imported crop price shocks. We theoretically show that pass-through varies with firms’ reliance on imported inputs and their demand curvature, generating heterogeneous inflationary effects. For empirical implementation, using financial statements from 10,911 food manufacturers (2000–2021), we document rising markup polarization and significant heterogeneity in markup elasticities across sectors and firm sizes under strategic pricing. Our pass-through measures reveal substantial underlying variation despite stable aggregate patterns; most notably, rising pass-through among firms less dependent on foreign crops. These findings underscore how strategic pricing and firm-specific characteristics shape equilibrium pass-through.

Using 2024 Freight Analysis Framework data, we assess US states’ uneven exposure potential to 2025 tariff shocks with Canada and Mexico. Results highlight a dual squeeze: Net-exporting states risk income losses from reduced foreign demand, while import-dependent states face rising food costs. Border states are particularly vulnerable.

The effects of industrial concentration on markups in the meatpacking industry remain the subject of ongoing global debate. Assuming a generalized Leontief cost structure for meatpackers, this paper develops a framework that decomposes the effect of concentration on markups into two opposing forces: a market-power effect and a cost-efficiency effect. Using firm-level broiler slaughtering records from South Korea (2017–2022), we find that rising concentration has gradually reduced packers' markups. This decline is driven primarily by the cost-efficiency effect, despite a stable market-power effect throughout the study period.

India's rapid expansion of ethanol production is emerging as a force reshaping the global corn market. Once a key regional corn exporter serving Asian feed markets, India redirected its domestic corn surplus to ethanol production under the Ethanol Blended Petrol program and became a net corn importer in 2023. Using CEPII-BACI bilateral trade data, this study traces how this policy-driven exporter-to-importer reversal has altered India's trade position and reallocated import demand among countries that had previously relied on imports of Indian corn. The findings indicate that policy-induced changes in domestic corn use can redirect bilateral trade flows and generate broader spillover effects across global agricultural markets.

The U.S. renewable diesel boom sharply expanded domestic soybean crushing, drawing a growing share of the crop into local processing and away from barge-borne exports down the Mississippi River. We ask whether this supply chain reorganization buffered inland soybean prices against river droughts. We estimate a storage-based structural VAR that allows crush activity to respond endogenously to market conditions, and identify river-disruption shocks using theory-based elasticity bounds. Holding crush activity at its pre-boom level, in the counterfactual analysis, reveals lower inland spot prices by 5.5% on average over 2021–2024. The results indicate that renewable diesel expansion changed not only the level of soybean demand, but also the price consequences of recurrent transportation shocks.

Using monthly export data for 178 ports over 2013–2025, this study examines how the U.S. port network reallocates grain shipments when river navigation deteriorates. The dynamic causal impact of river disruption on port-level trade flows are estimated using a two-stage local-projection control function framework, instrumenting grain barge rates with localized hydrological variations across 46 monitoring gauges. We find that the U.S. port network buffers inland waterway disruptions only in the short-run. Initial buffers temporarily shield Gulf exports, but sustained losses emerge as these margins collapse. Ultimately, the speed and scope of port reallocation hinge upon supply chain diversification and seasonal contractual rigidity.